Korok, may I suggest also reading Dr. Geoffrey West’s book, “Scale”. Giovanni referred to West’s book in one of his earlier YouTube videos.
West holds a PhD in physics and has worked at Los Alamos on several astrophysics and particle physics projects. His book details the use of power-law models across a broad range of cosmological problems in physics. His work over the past several years has been directed towards the revelation of power-law phenomena in the life-sciences.
West has also revealed power-law phenomena (sub-linear and super-linear) in macroeconomics. But, curiously, he has yet to explore or understand bitcoin price, address or hash rate (Giovanni also presents the case for super-linear hash rate correlation to power-law) correlation to power-law. Robert Breedlove interviewed West a couple years ago. When asks if he is a Bitcoin advocate, West admitted he has little personal discipline in budget matters let alone an understanding of monetary policy. Yet Bitcoin’s power-law phenomena stares him in his face.
West’s life-science work focuses on man. The human body is a network of networks. Each of its (many) subnetworks is both driven and damped. Considered as closed thermodynamic systems, each produces useful energy (work) and useless energy (entropy). Entropy production is as evident as the pee and poop we all produce every day. More microscopically, entropy production is as evident as our inevitable death due to insufficient replacement of dead or dying cellular matter in our bodies. Power-law phenomena are evident throughout these subnetworks and in the larger super-network of the human body.
Power-laws are being exposed in the life sciences. They are also exposed in macroeconomics (GDP per capita vs population size) in cities. West cites examples. Power laws are absent from corporations - centrally-controlled and ossifiable hierarchies unwilling or unable to adapt over long periods (eg. Kodak, IBM). The lack of an adaptation mechanism in corporations would be akin to a lack of block-time difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin. Power-law phenomena possess this curious “driven-and-damped” ecology. Without adaptability, power-law phenomena is absent.
At the margin of Bitcoin’s many subnetworks are individual human beings. Each is driven by a personal psychology that changes with time and situation that is individually unpredictable. Can you find category proxies for these that can demonstrate causality? Good luck. Onchain analysis seems to offer the best chance of identifying root, proximal or ultimate cause. But, to date, the only categorization seems to be the distinction between short-term (<155 days holding) and long term holders. Institutional and sovereign holders? I don’t see any research into reliable proxies (known addresses, known exchanges, known custodial addresses). Good luck finding known addresses of UAE sovereign stashes.
All I know is that Bitcoin has three power-law behaviors - price, address count, hashrate. While correlation is not causation, the correlation was sufficient for me to triple my personal BTC wealth / fiat wealth fraction over the past year.
Need any observation of individual psychology variation in an individual bitcoin advocate? Look no further than the mercurial psychology of Giovanni Santostasi. I much prefer (the more damped psychology of) Dr. Stephen Perrenod, his colleague and fellow astrophysicist. And I reject the less scientific approach of Plan C’s revised quantile regression power-law work.
Korok, may I suggest also reading Dr. Geoffrey West’s book, “Scale”. Giovanni referred to West’s book in one of his earlier YouTube videos.
West holds a PhD in physics and has worked at Los Alamos on several astrophysics and particle physics projects. His book details the use of power-law models across a broad range of cosmological problems in physics. His work over the past several years has been directed towards the revelation of power-law phenomena in the life-sciences.
West has also revealed power-law phenomena (sub-linear and super-linear) in macroeconomics. But, curiously, he has yet to explore or understand bitcoin price, address or hash rate (Giovanni also presents the case for super-linear hash rate correlation to power-law) correlation to power-law. Robert Breedlove interviewed West a couple years ago. When asks if he is a Bitcoin advocate, West admitted he has little personal discipline in budget matters let alone an understanding of monetary policy. Yet Bitcoin’s power-law phenomena stares him in his face.
West’s life-science work focuses on man. The human body is a network of networks. Each of its (many) subnetworks is both driven and damped. Considered as closed thermodynamic systems, each produces useful energy (work) and useless energy (entropy). Entropy production is as evident as the pee and poop we all produce every day. More microscopically, entropy production is as evident as our inevitable death due to insufficient replacement of dead or dying cellular matter in our bodies. Power-law phenomena are evident throughout these subnetworks and in the larger super-network of the human body.
Power-laws are being exposed in the life sciences. They are also exposed in macroeconomics (GDP per capita vs population size) in cities. West cites examples. Power laws are absent from corporations - centrally-controlled and ossifiable hierarchies unwilling or unable to adapt over long periods (eg. Kodak, IBM). The lack of an adaptation mechanism in corporations would be akin to a lack of block-time difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin. Power-law phenomena possess this curious “driven-and-damped” ecology. Without adaptability, power-law phenomena is absent.
At the margin of Bitcoin’s many subnetworks are individual human beings. Each is driven by a personal psychology that changes with time and situation that is individually unpredictable. Can you find category proxies for these that can demonstrate causality? Good luck. Onchain analysis seems to offer the best chance of identifying root, proximal or ultimate cause. But, to date, the only categorization seems to be the distinction between short-term (<155 days holding) and long term holders. Institutional and sovereign holders? I don’t see any research into reliable proxies (known addresses, known exchanges, known custodial addresses). Good luck finding known addresses of UAE sovereign stashes.
All I know is that Bitcoin has three power-law behaviors - price, address count, hashrate. While correlation is not causation, the correlation was sufficient for me to triple my personal BTC wealth / fiat wealth fraction over the past year.
Need any observation of individual psychology variation in an individual bitcoin advocate? Look no further than the mercurial psychology of Giovanni Santostasi. I much prefer (the more damped psychology of) Dr. Stephen Perrenod, his colleague and fellow astrophysicist. And I reject the less scientific approach of Plan C’s revised quantile regression power-law work.
Dave Corley
Gig ‘em, TAMU ‘74 (aerospace eng)
For a top-level look at institutional holdings, see https://bitcointreasuries.net
Shows trends of corporate, ETF, government adoption. But no onchain detail